Lead · Prices
Inflation at a 19-month high — and your October rate cut just got harder
July CPI came in at 4.45%, above the RBI's 4% target for a second straight month. Food did it: onion up 22.5%, garlic 35.4%, ginger 83.6% on the year.
12 August 2026 · National Statistics Office, CPI release
July's retail inflation print came in at 4.45%, up from 4.38% in June — the highest reading in 19 months and the second consecutive month above the RBI's 4% target. Food inflation rose to 5.52%, with vegetables doing the damage: onion at 22.5%, garlic at 35.4% and ginger at 83.6% year-on-year. Rural food inflation, at 5.79%, is running ahead of urban.
Why it matters: the MPC held the repo at 5.25% on 5 August with a neutral stance, and its FY27 inflation projection is 5.0%. Two months above target — with the festive season, when food prices usually firm up, still ahead — shortens the odds on a cut at the 5–7 October meeting. Markets read it the same way: the Nifty closed the week at 24,366, down 0.8%.
What this means for youPrice your loans at today's rate, not a hoped-for cut. If your CC/OD renewal is due before Diwali, negotiate now on spread, not on the benchmark. And if food is your raw material — restaurants, caterers, namkeen, sweets — recost your menu this week rather than after the season starts.
Tax Desk · Income Tax · Urgent
ITR-3 and ITR-4 due 31 August — 15 days left, and the portal knows it
CBDT · AY 2026-27
Business owners and professionals without audit file by 31 August. That is 15 days from this issue. The pattern every year is the same: the portal is fine this week, slow next week, and barely usable on the last two days. Audit cases (31 October) and transfer-pricing cases (30 November) are unchanged.
What this means for youIf you file presumptively under 44AD or 44ADA, this date is yours. Send us bank statements, the purchase-sale summary and your GST turnover reconciliation by 20 August — the portal slows to a crawl in the final week.