Lead · Reserve Bank
The RBI's own minutes see 5.9% inflation by winter — stop waiting for a rate cut
Minutes of the 3–5 August meeting, released Wednesday, project CPI at 4.7% this quarter, 5.9% in Q3 and 5.5% in Q4 — above the 4% target through the festive season and beyond.
Minutes released 19 August 2026 · Monetary Policy Committee, 62nd meeting
The minutes of the August policy meeting show why the committee held the repo at 5.25% unanimously: its own path for inflation runs 4.7% this quarter, 5.9% in Q3 and 5.5% in Q4. July's actual print of 4.45% — a 19-month high — sits under that path, not above it. On the RBI's numbers, prices stay past the 4% target through Diwali and into the new year.
The week priced it in. The Nifty fell a second straight week to 24,252; Brent crude jumped 7% to $93.93 on West Asia risk, which feeds diesel, freight and packaging within a quarter. The next MPC meeting is 5–7 October — and with the committee's own Q3 number at 5.9%, a cut there now needs the data to prove the committee wrong.
What this means for youCost your festive-season working capital at 5.25% staying put, and build the fuel line into quotes now: a 7% crude week reaches your transporter's bill within weeks. If a supplier offers a cash discount for early payment, at these rates it is usually worth taking.
Tax Desk · Income Tax · Urgent
Eight days to 31 August — and no, an extension has not been announced
CBDT · AY 2026-27 · non-audit business and professional returns
ITR-3 and ITR-4 for business owners and professionals without audit are due 31 August — eight days from this issue, and the department has signalled nothing about an extension. Every year the same arithmetic plays out: the portal is workable this weekend, crowded midweek, and grinding on the 30th and 31st. Audit cases stay at 31 October.
What this means for youIf your books are not with your filer yet, today is the send date — not the 28th. Filing after the portal chokes risks a belated return: a s.234F fee, interest under 234A, and business losses you cannot carry forward.